Daily Archives: February 14, 2017

JAPAN AS ASIA’S SUPERPOWER BY 2040. PART 2

abe-speaking-trump0KOMUNIDAD
February 12, 2017

JAPAN AS ASIA’S SUPERPOWER BY 2040. PART 2

By Arturo P. Garcia

According to Friedman and Shapiro, ” At first glance, Japan seems to imply a similar level of wealth concentration in certain regions. Like China, Japan is informally divided into regions and sometimes reports data at the regional level.

Japan is made up of four main islands: Kyushu, Shikoku, Honshu, and Hokkaido.

Kyushu, Shikoku, and Hokkaido constitute regions of their own. Honshu, the largest and most populous of the Japanese islands, is subdivided into five additional regions.

These five Honshu regions account for 87% of the Japanese economy. (About 43% of that economic activity comes from the Kanto region’s seven prefectures.)

This map also separates Tokyo prefecture from the others to provide a sense of how much it contributes to Japan’s total GDP. Tokyo prefecture (by itself) accounts for just over 18%.

Factoring in the Tokyo greater metropolitan area increases this figure. According to the latest available data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (from 2012), Tokyo had the largest GDP of any city in the world at $1.48 trillion. (Seoul was second with a GDP of less than half of that.)

That means greater Tokyo accounts for almost a third of Japan’s total GDP.

Japan’s advantage Unlike China, Japan’s wealth is spread much more evenly among its population. On the simplest level, this is easier to accomplish with a population of 127.3 million than with a population of 1.3 billion.

But this is not strictly about size. What holds China back is the diversity that results from its size.murasame-class-destroyer-js-inazuma-co-jd-abs-021417

Japan does not have to deal with the type of coastal-versus-interior diversity that China does.

In the China example, almost every coastal province could be compared with an interior province and a similar gulf would exist. In Japan, only Tokyo is significantly above the mean per capita income of 3.1 million yen for the entire country, and that is due, in part, to the higher cost of living in the city.

There is wealth disparity in Japan to be sure, but the disparity is not on the same scale as that which exists at the provincial level in China.
Factoring in the Tokyo greater metropolitan area increases this figure.

According to the latest available data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (from 2012), Tokyo had the largest GDP of any city in the world at $1.48 trillion. (Seoul was second with a GDP of less than half of that.)

That means greater Tokyo accounts for almost a third of Japan’s total GDP.

Japan’s advantage Unlike China, Japan’s wealth is spread much more evenly among its population. On the simplest level, this is easier to accomplish with a population of 127.3 million than with a population of 1.3 billion.

But this is not strictly about size. What holds China back is the diversity that results from its size.
Japan does not have to deal with the type of coastal-versus-interior diversity that China does.

In the China example, almost every coastal province could be compared with an interior province and a similar gulf would exist. In Japan, only Tokyo is significantly above the mean per capita income of 3.1 million yen for the entire country, and that is due, in part, to the higher cost of living in the city.

There is wealth disparity in Japan to be sure, but the disparity is not on the same scale as that which exists at the provincial level in China.
Japan’s greatest challenge and Japan’s great weakness is its dependence on imports for food and raw materials. The country’s total food self-sufficiency ratio based on calorie supply was just 39% in 2015. Based on production value, it was just 66%.

Japan relies almost entirely on imports for staples like wheat, barley, corn, and soy.

Energy is another example of this dependence on imports. One of the main reasons Japan entered World War II was to protect its access to oil.

Today, Japan is still reliant on foreign sources of energy. Even before the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident in 2011, Japan relied on foreign sources for close to 80% of its energy supply.

Since 2012, that number has risen to almost 91% (according to the US Energy Information Administration).

Some will argue that Japan’s bigger problem is demographics. It is true that Japan has a rapidly aging population. But so does China. Most European countries also face this issue.

But Japan has options. Japan is one of the top investors in the world in artificial intelligence research, automation, and robotics technology to maintain productivity.

And while Japanese society is homogeneous and relatively unfriendly to outsiders, desperate circumstances could call for desperate measures and necessitate changing policies on immigration.

The broader Asia-Pacific region also offers opportunities for Japan to find workers to address this problem.”

In their final comparison Friedman and Shapiro said, ” Japan is the 62nd-largest country in terms of area. It is the 11th largest in terms of population. But neither of these facts disqualifies Japan from rising as a regional power.

Unlike China, Japan has no land-based enemies — it is an island nation. Unlike China, the Japanese government has no concern about its ability to impose its writ throughout the entire country.

Nor does it have to deal with a huge gulf in wealth disparity between regions. Japan has also managed a transition from a high-growth economy to a low-growth economy without revolution.

Japan’s weaknesses have manifested in the development of a strong navy able to guard maritime supply lines. It has also cultivated a tight alliance with a country that will guard those supply lines, the US.

To be clear, China is still a very powerful country relative to most in the world. As such, much of our writing remains focused on understanding how economic problems in China are manifesting in political challenges.

For now, Japan is less dynamic and important — though it will become more so — and our writing on Japan will increase as it becomes the leading power in the Asia Pacific.”

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JAPAN VS CHINA AS ASIA’S LEADING POWER BY 2040

KOMUNIDAD
February 11, 201

JAPAN VS CHINA AS ASIA’S LEADING POWER BY 204020160402_LDD001_facebook

By Arturo P. Garcia

” By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power., not China. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.”

This was the pronouncement of “Business Insider” in an article/analysis written by George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro of “Maulden Economics”

They compared the contemporary China with Japan. As a political and economic analyst, I will divide my discussion into 3 parts. This is the first part about China as elucidated by Friedman and Shapiro.

Friedman and Shapiro explained, ” A good place to start is a broad comparison of the structure of China’s and Japan’s economies (the second- and third-largest economies in the world).

This analysis will reveal strengths and weaknesses for both and will bring our forecast into sharper relief.13620168_1267189539973023_1546217399480246871_n

China’s economic weaknesses.The coastal Eastern Region accounts for more than half of all economic activity in China. The Central and Western regions each produce about 20% of China’s economic wealth. But let’s take a closer look.

The map below divides China into four geographic regions by contribution to national GDP. The data comes from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. China sometimes uses these divisions to understand how the economy is performing at a regional level. (It must be noted that these figures are most likely manipulated for political purposes.)

The data contains notable discrepancies, in spite of which it still reveals much about China’s economic weaknesses.

The coastal Eastern Region accounts for more than half of all economic activity in China. The Central and Western regions each produce about 20% of China’s economic wealth. But let’s take a closer look.

The Western Region makes up more than half of China’s total land area. But it produces less than half of what the Eastern Region does. And it produces the same amount as the Central Region, which is less than half its size.

The Northeastern Region appears to be an outlier. It accounts for just 8% of China’s GDP. Most of this region’s economic activity is heavy industry and has been under severe pressure as China attempts to increase internal demand and decrease dependence on exports.

What does this mean in practical terms? The Western Region makes up more than half of China’s total land area. But it produces less than half of what the Eastern Region does. And it produces the same amount as the Central Region, which is less than half its size.

The Northeastern Region appears to be an outlier. It accounts for just 8% of China’s GDP. Most of this region’s economic activity is heavy industry and has been under severe pressure as China attempts to increase internal demand and decrease dependence on exports.

What does this mean in practical terms? Poverty is China’s greatest weakness

China’s biggest economic weakness — and its most potent enemy — is poverty. Regional economic disparities exist in many countries in the world. But in China they have always been particularly acute.

China’s sheer size magnifies this problem.In 1981, roughly 1 billion Chinese people lived on less than $3.10 a day (at 2011 purchasing power parity). The World Bank’s latest data (from 2010) shows that the number dropped to 360 million that year.

That is a great accomplishment. The problem is that it is not enough.China has been growing at a remarkable rate for the past 30 years, but that growth is slowing down, with 360 million people still living in abject poverty.

The map shows us that most of China’s economic success is enjoyed by the coast and not the rest of the country.China’s double-edged sword.China is the most populous country in the world and the fourth largest in terms of area. This is a source of great power, but it is also a double-edged sword.

There are great advantages. China can deploy huge armies. It is buffered from enemies by vast territory or harsh geography on all sides. It can also mobilize human capital like no other country.

On the other hand, it means China often spends more on internal security than it does on the much-vaunted People’s Liberation Army.

It also rules over many regions that are not ethnically Han Chinese, regions that want greater autonomy (if not independence). And China must maintain a robust capability to guard its borders.

China is a formidable land-based power, but it has never been a global maritime power. It has always been susceptible to internal revolution and, at times, external conquest.”

In summary, the authors only focused on China’s weakness and not it’s present strengths. China’s character might have changed from a socialist political economy to a capitalist economy but it is still a a force to reckon with.

This i will discuss later in my own analysis, part 3 of these geopolitical analysis by Friedman and Shapiro.

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FREE FERDINAND CASTILLO, ACTIVISTS ARE NOT TERRORIST OR CRIMINALS

ALLIANCE NEWS
February 14, 2017

FREE FERDINAND CASTILLO, ACTIVISTS ARE NOT TERRORIST OR CRIMINALS14054299_10209124495803178_1134729115577460992_o

Los Angeles- The Alliance Philippines vehemently condemned the AFP/ PNP in arrest rampage after cancellation of talks in the Philippines.

From February 3 to 12, 2017, the ALLIANCE NEWS received reports of illegal arrests of at least fifteen (19) individuals, many are activists and civilians. Fifteen (15) of them are still detained, as of this writing.

The Alliance Philippines vehemently condemned the arrest on February 12, of activist Ferdinand Castillo, 57. He was arrested without warrant in Caloocan City. Castillo was blindfolded for almost four hours and was later brought to the PNP-CIDG office in Camp Crame, Quezon City.

Castillo is the campaign officer of Bayan Metro Manila, an alliance of Metro Manila-based people’s organizations, known to uphold people’s rights and welfare.

Trump Up Charges

‘He is facing trumped-up charges of murder and attempted murder in RTC Branch 63 in Calauag, Quezon Province, and charges of illegal possession of firearms, despite his protests on the planting of evidence in his belongings.

On the same note, two women development workers were also illegally arrested on fabricated criminal offenses. Rogina Quilop, 49, administrative officer of the Center for People’s Resources and ServicSara ParksDG elements for murder charges. She is currently detained at the Handumanan Female Dorm. On February 9, 2017.

In Baguio City ,Sarah Abellon-Alikes, the daughter of Anglican Bishop Richard Abellon Sr and a member of the Board of Directors of the Regional Development Center – Katinnulong Dagiti Umili ti Amianan (RDC-Kadaumi), was accosted by elements of the AFP while on her way to downtown Baguio City.

Arrest Without Charges

She was detained for two days without charges before she was turned over to the Philippine National Police (PNP) station on February 11 for trumped-up charges of arson and robbery.

She is now temporarily released on bail. Alikes, a Kankanaey-Igorot, is a pioneer of the Cordillera People’s Alliance (CPA).

The Alliance Philippines believed that the GRP and its State security forces should account for the continuing violations of JASIG and the Comprehensive Agreement on the Respect of Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law (CARHRIHL) .

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DHS/ICE REPORTED 640 ARRESTS IN SIX STATES

FAI NEWS
February 13, 2017

DHS/ICE REPORTED 640 ARRESTS IN SIX STATES16177715_1350263791714293_8434973827577229264_o

Report by Art P. Garcia

Los Angeles--The Department Of Homeland (DHS) reported today that they have arrested more than 640 “illegal immigrants” of whom,”75% have criminal records”

This is in line with the Executive Order of POTUS Trump for more “stringent enforcement of immigration laws.” Trump vowed to deport more than 3 million “illegal immigrants with criminal records”.

Meanwhile, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) reported that at least 160 immigrants were apprehended in ICE raids and checkpoints all over southern California from Thursday to the present.

“Routine job”

U.S. immigration authorities made a series of arrests in at least half a dozen states across the country on Thursday and Friday, sweeping up an unknown number of undocumented immigrants, immigration lawyers and advocates said.

The raids, which appeared to target scores of people, including those without criminal records, mark the first larges cale episode of immigration enforcement inside the United States since President Trump’s Jan. 26 order to crack down on the estimated 11 million immigrants living here illegally.

Immigration lawyers and advocates said some of the enforcement efforts included traffic stops and checkpoints, though Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials disputed those accounts, saying the agency does not use checkpoints while engaging in targeted enforcement operations.

It also appeared to signal a departure from the Obama administration’s position of prioritizing immigration enforcement against criminals. Trump has pledged to deport up to 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal records.

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POE: BI SCANDAL SOW CORRUPTION ALIVE AND WELL UNDER DUTERTE Special Report by Al P. Garcia

FAI NEWS
February 13, 2017

Poe: BI scandal shows corruption ‘alive and well’ under Duterte 

Special Report by Arturo P. GarciaGrace Poe

Los Angeles– The Filipino American Inquirer (FAI) NEWS reported today that, ” the P50-million bribery scandal allegedly involving immigration officials only showed that “corruption is alive and well” under the Duterte administration, Senator Grace Poe said on Tuesday.

Poe said this when asked over ABS-CBN News Channel’s morning show, “Headstart,” about her opinion on the ongoing Senate probe on the issue.

“That corruption is alive and well. Even under this administration, there are still people protecting each other’s friends and interest,” she said.

Blue Ribbon Committee Hearings

The Senate blue ribbon committee chaired by Senator Richard Gordon has been investigating allegations that gambling tycoon Jack Lam, through his representative Wally Sombero Jr.

Sombrero allegedly had given former Bureau of Immigration (BI) Associate Commissioners Al Argosino and Michael Robles P50 million in exchange for the release of undocumented Chinese workers at his casino hotel in Pampanga.

After repeated failure to attend the probe, Sombero is finally expected to appear before the committee, which is scheduled to resume its hearing on Thursday.

Senate Cannot Send People To JailTULOY POE ANG LABAN!

“You know, the Senate is there to bring out the truth and also for the public to be able to witness it and weigh in on the situation because it can’t be done in the courts,” Poe said.

“But the Senate can’t send those people to jail. We can only file a committee report, calling on the Sandiganbayan or the Ombudsman, etc (to file cases against certain people).

So these people (have to be)—whoever is responsible—should be thrown in jail, otherwise, it will not discourage others from committing the same crimes,” she added.

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OROVILLE DAM IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE, EVACUATION ORDERED

FAI NEWS
February 13, 2917

OROVILLE DAM IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE, EVACUATION ORDERED

Special Report by Arturo P. Garcia

OROVILLE, CA. — California has deployed 23,000 National Guards ,8 helicopters as it tries to fix the eroded spill way, and more than 188,000 people around Oroville Dam were evacuated as the alarms were sounded for the dam was in danger of collapse.

At least 188,000 people remain under evacuation orders after Northern California authorities warned an emergency spillway in the country’s tallest dam was in danger of failing Sunday and unleashing uncontrolled flood waters on towns below.

About 150 miles northeast of San Francisco, Lake Oroville is one of California’s largest man-made lakes, and the 770-foot-tall Oroville Dam is the nation’s tallest.

Evacuation Ordered

The cities of Oroville, Gridley, Live Oak, Marysville, Wheat land, Yuba City, Plumas Lake, and Olivehurst were all under evacuation orders.

The evacuation was ordered Sunday afternoon after engineers spotted erosion on the dam’s secondary spillway. Hours later, panicked and angry people were sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic trying to leave the area.

“The police came and told us to evacuate,” said Kaysi Levias who was with her husband, Greg, at a gas station as they attempted to flee.

Officials warned residents that the spillway could fail within an hour “I’m just shocked,” Greg Levias said. “Pretty mad.”

No More Warnings

“Not giving us more warning,” said Kaysi, finishing his sentence.”We’ve never been through this before,” said Kaysi Levias. “We have two boys and our dog. All the stuff we could fit in the trunk – clothes and blankets.”

What they couldn’t fit they piled as high as they could in their downstairs Yuba City apartment and joined the line of traffic attempting to leave the city where they had moved just three weeks ago.

State Fire and Rescue Chief Kim Zagaris spoke at a news conference late Sunday and said at least 250 law enforcement officers from throughout the state are in the area or en route to help the people evacuating.

Eroded Spillway

The evacuation order went out around 4 p.m. after engineers spotted a hole that was eroding back toward the top of the spillway.

The erosion at the head of the emergency spillway threatens to undermine the concrete weir and allow large, uncontrolled releases of water from Lake Oroville, the California Department of Water Resources said. Those potential flows could overwhelm the Feather River and other downstream waterways, channels and levees.

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