Daily Archives: June 16, 2016

IS THE CHINESE ECONOMY IN SHOCK?

KOMUNIDAD
June 16, 2916?

IS THE CHINESE ECONOMY IN SHOCK?

By Arturo P. Garcia

News reports from countless sources suggest that China’s in real trouble. But its troubles are now our troubles, This is because China’s pending market meltdown has been called “the scariest threat to capitalist world stocks since 2009.”

Yes, Virginia, since China is not a socialist economy anymore, it has been a part of the capitalist world since the 1990’s. IT’s masquerade is only for the Chinese people and for domestic consumption only and only in name- as “People’s Republic of China.”

Its annual GDP has dropped below 7% in the third quarter of 2015 for the first time since the dark days of the 2008-09 crisis…Slowed GDP growth coupled with trade woes due to stark decreases in demand — especially when it comes to oil and gas — have left the nation especially vulnerable to economic strife.

China, a former socialist economy slowly and then hurriedly transformed to capitalism during the stewardship of Deng Xiao Ping from the early 1980’s to the present.

Using the socialist engine and the huge Maoist saving during the 30-odd years of “iron bowl” of growth, it was easy to turn this state capital into “finance capital” to save the crumbling capitalist world in the 1990’s and beyond.

Consequently, other developing nations, reliant on China as a big customer for their resources, are struggling because of this sudden change from export economy to domestic consumption economy.

The Philippines is one of this nation that is affected by it’s neighbor “economy in shock.”

The Philippines is one nation in denial. It prides itself that it has a bigger GDP growth bigger than China and yet, it cannot deny that is is affected with the economic woes of its next door neighbor.

This is expressed it its problem in the South China Seas islands and shoals. Which the Philippines belatedly called “The West Philippine Seas.” A subject of a military confrontation with its other neighbors like Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei.

China’s combined exports and imports fell a staggering 8.1% in the first nine months of 2015 from the same period in 2014, well below the full-year official target of 6% growth. This is the result of the government stress on domestic consumption.

Meanwhile though, something historic has happened. The International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) has accepted the Chinese yuan (or renminbi) as a main world reserve currency, marking a huge milestone in China’s goal to internationalize its currency and further its global dominance.

A basic tenet of Lenin’s “finance capitalism”, one main feature of Imperialism, the highest stage of capitalism.

Many political and economist asks, so what’s it going to be? Is China going drag the capitalist world down with its economic woes in the year ahead OR is it in line to replace the U.S. as the globe’s superpower? Ironically enough, maybe, both…

A friend of mine have alarmed that the end of the US dollar is near. We also learn the significance of the I.M.F.’s renminbi decision and why many fear it’s the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar… and how this will impact your investing decisions in 2016 and beyond.

Your guess is as good as mine.

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TALKING TO TALK

KOMUNIDAD
June 16, 2016

TALKING TO TALK

By Arturo P. Garcia

The last time the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) and the Government of the Philippines (GPH) talked or negotiated peace in the Philippines it was 29 years ago, in November 1986 to January 1987.

After the talk and the failed 60 days ceasefire that did not hold, it was mayhem. The Cory Aquino government and its army waved the sword of war and it caused so much suffering to the Filipino people.

From then on, after the bloody Mendiola Massacre of January 22, 1987 that ended the failed ceasefire and many lives lost and captured from their negotiators by the military, the NDFP became very cautious on the talks.

They become more extra vigilant in making it sure it will be well documented, more than 10 agreements were made and the compliance to these signed agreements were implemented.

Thus, despite the shrewd maneuvers and schemes that the government has tried to put over the NDFP for the last 29 years has been rebuffed.

Especially during the 6 years of the Aquino III Regime, that prioritized the MILF over the NDFP and almost succeeded in crafting the peace mechanism for Mindanao, if not for the Mamasapano Fiasco.

Aquino III made a wrong decision of not talking to the NDFP during the six years of his term. He essentially followed people who were die-hard anti-communists or personalities who harbor ill-will towards Prof. Jose Maria Sison like Deles, Llamas ,Rosales and now Senator Hontiveros and others.

He got what he deserved, in Tagalog saying, “Kapag hangin ang itinanim, bagyo ang aanihin.” He might have his shaky peace in central Mindanao, while the whole nation was burning with the communist insurgency.

The NDFP at least got their talks and hopes started up after the elections of May 2016. Duterte, while waiting for his inauguration, set the wheels of talks in motion. The two parties, the Duterte negotiators and the NDFP has their preliminary meetings in Oslo, Norway. A good start for a peace talks.

Duterte also started the good will gestures by appointing some NDFP recommendees to some cabinet positions. To the consternation of the usual anti communist, militarist crusaders in the Philippine society.

But for us political analyst, its still along way for a real honest to goodness peace talks. Especially with the NDFP with more than 29 years of off and on peace negotiations, more are expected from the two sides.

Besides, it takes two to tango.

Let see how they do it until July 31, 2016 when the Philippine Congress approves the General Amnesty proposed by Duterte to free all the political detainees as a goodwill measure for the peace talks.

As Prof Joma Sison told the outgoing US-Aquino III Regime; “ They have no right to demand anything if they have not signed anything.”

Just plain and simple.

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